e-book Summary: ChangeWave Investing: Review and Analysis of Smiths Book

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We received our full allocation.

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You can check on Computershare to confirm your own allocation. Macquarie Chief Financial Officer Greg Ward said Macquarie will accept all valid applications received under the offer, resulting in the allotment of a maximum of All the other details are pretty straight forward and are in the offer document. If you have any specific question please feel free to ask, but if it is about your eligibility then you should call your broker. When I posted about the stock compensation abuse at Smith Micro last week I promised some follow-up notes. This be them.


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They are a mish-mash of old notes, so excuse me if I repeat myself or at times seem contradictory. Smith Micro is a small cap leader in mobility software products for the wireless market.

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They provide connectivity, security multimedia and device management. Smith Micro are sitting in one of the sweetest spots of the teens the next decade , mobile convergence. Wireless data subscribers are estimated to increase almost 20 fold to M by and SMSI has the suite of products the carriers and OEMs need to enable this massive migration and growth that is being fuelled by Gen Y.

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SMSI had an excellent fourth quarter and the share price has moved up since them; however, there remains a significant opportunity as they continue to expand margins and sales throughout They are sitting at the start of a massive technological change wave and are well placed to be sucked up in the tornado.

SMSI has high growth and no debt. Unfortunately Smith Micro has failed to show me the money, but fingers crossed will change that. A third and more detailed method is to ignore earnings altogether and concentrate on cash. I am normally highly sceptical of analysts five year predictions and as a rule heavily discount them.

Unfortunately even if SMSI hit that amazing growth in revenue, it is unlikely shareholders will enjoy comparable growth in earnings and cash flow. Operating income took a large hit in , falling from I think the large number of customer signings in Q4 is proof that the investments were smart. Dissecting all those purchases is difficult and muddies the waters considerably.

While SMSI list the usual risks like customer concentration I see the primary risk in the evolving nature of software design away from the corporate structure to individuals and loosely knit communities. Open source and direct software sales as inspired by Apple Aps is the bull in the china shop no-one is talking about.

I have been following SMSI for a few years and have seen them nimbly adapt to the changes. When I first invested I expected the main growth driver to be a compression product called Stuffit, which has almost faded in to obscurity. Then came and went music kits and now security and connectivity products have emerged as the growth driver. SMSI have been able to deliver the right product at the right time thus far. However, their acquisitions may not have been the best use of shareholder funds and muddy the waters considerably.

The other large risk is competition from the likes of Microsoft. The large negative results suggests SMSI has a negative defensive income and therefore may struggle to fund their own expansion. So in SMSI possibly eked out a defensive income, but and paint a dreary picture. Keep in mind how SMSI like to claim their four years of consecutive rising earnings, but seldom mention their failing GAAP earnings or their falling cash from operations. Heck if I keep telling this story I might convince myself to sell.

SMSI fail on the defensive profit measure and as such may not be able to fund their growth. You may wish to do the longer version to confirm that. If they are failing to generate an enterprising profit they are failing to create value.

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Following is an old note by Stan Huber. This was written in late or early so the products have changed since then. You then wait for verifiable milestones to be achieved. I want to see at least two carriers adopt QL Music by the end of the year. I want to see no cracks in the Verizon partnership. I want to see a handset maker adopt StuffIt in the first half of I want to see a carrier implement a StuffIt handler on the network side. And so on. Achievement of the milestones and confidence in the predictions of management build my confidence in the company over time. SMSI are well positioned on the edge of the wireless tornado.

Whether they get sucked up Inside the Tornado depends on their execution and on the powerful competitors like Microsoft who are no doubt eying this market. Smith Micro have carved out a strong niche position and forged many strategic partnership with carriers, PC and device manufacturers. An investment in SMSI appears to have a lot more upside potential over the next year than downside risk.

I continue to want SMSI to show me the money. Watch these costs closely! Smith Micro have taken shareholders funds and any earnings and ploughed them back in to an acquisitive growth strategy. There is a chance this may pay off and they finally appear to be signing the deals required to make it happen. Smith Micro has a strong balance sheet. Smith Micro Software Inc. Like most companies they concentrated their spin on the positives.

The spin continued in their conference call with Bill Smith once again showing his mercurial salesmanship. The amount of stock compensation tech and biotech companies handout has always annoyed me. Heck I felt bad, so bad I did go against the advice of every financial planner who has ever lived and actually put some capital at risk in the companies we worked for. The number one way people justify stock options is staff retention.

What a crock of stempweggle that is.

http://illll.xsrv.jp/components/humi-beau-rivage-deals.php People want to work for good companies, options are a secondary benefit not a deal maker. Yes some greedy individuals may be motivated by options packages, but from my experience they are not the sort of people who are a long term benefit to a company. They are self interested. Being motivated by an interest in your work, a desire to be your best and a good pay packet is more than enough for most people.

Stock options do help to retain people. Unfortunately it is often the dross who are retained.

Good employees can get a new job whenever they want and are not afraid to move. If you are going to use this approach, you first need to reconsider your risk tolerance and see if you can stomach starting out with a full commitment to stocks using a broad-based index fund. You also need to make sure that you will not need any portion of this investment for liquidity needs. Once you have picked a starter fund, keep adding to it over time, and gradually build up your commitment.

Concentrate first on meeting your allocation goals among the three major market segments;cash, bonds, and core stocks. If you started with a balanced fund, you may want to next add a stock fund once you can meet the minimum to increase your percentage investment in stocks, and perhaps an intermediate-term bond fund after that; you can then start the switch out of the balanced fund. At what point do you start diversifying beyond the major market segments;in particular, when should you consider diversifying your stock portfolio beyond the core?

Which segment should you add first? Pick the one to which you will be committing the larger percentage. What if you plan equal commitments? You could choose either one, so pick the fund that you are more comfortable with or one that has other attractions for instance, perhaps lower minimums. If you are starting an investment program from scratch, keep these points in mind:. A critical look at the Dow dividend strategy suggests that its impressive past record may be played out;and that other well-known strategies could have done even better.

For decades, brokers, dealers, investment advisers, and individual investors have been searching for a mechanical investment strategy that will select securities that outperform the major stock indexes. Over the years, a literal deluge of these strategies has been proposed and described in books and investment newsletters. One strategy that has received a lot of notoriety is the Dow dividend strategy. This strategy makes use of a simple mechanical decision rule: at the beginning of each year, an investor purchases the 10 highest dividend-yielding stocks from among the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones industrial average, and holds those stocks for one year, at which time the rule is repeated.

Since its introduction, the strategy has been closely followed by the financial press. One author argues that the Dow dividend strategy forces an investor to adhere to three successful investing elements: patience, consistency of strategy and implementation, and the power of compounding. Still other authors argue that stocks with high dividend yields are often out of favor with investors and are therefore relatively cheap. In response to the positive publicity surrounding the strategy, several major investment houses have co-sponsored unit investment trusts based on the Dow dividend strategy.

The success of the Dow dividend strategy directly contradicts the cornerstone of academic investment theory, the efficient market hypothesis.

That theory, in its strongest form, proposes that stock prices reflect all past and current public and private information, and therefore no strategy can outperform the overall market without taking on greater risk.